IATA nearly halves its 2026 airline profit forecast as Middle East disruption drives up fuel costs

IATA cut its 2026 global airline profit forecast nearly in half, to a combined net profit of $23.0 billion from an earlier projection of $41 billion, citing Middle East conflict-related disruption and surging fuel costs. The trade body expects jet fuel prices to rise 70% to around $152 a barrel, compressing the industry's net margin to 2.0% — half its earlier 3.9% projection — and cutting expected net profit per passenger from $9.10 to $4.50. Middle Eastern carriers face collective losses from airspace closures and operational disruption, even as most other regions remain profitable and total industry revenue is still projected to grow 9.4% to $1.165 trillion. IATA Director General Willie Walsh said "airlines are bearing the brunt of the fuel price shock."